Keep Calm because Raqqa is not happening anytime soon
While the drums of war are all over the internet, we should keep calm. Raqqa, the capital of the so-called Islamic State, is not happening anytime soon. “The current battle is only to liberate the area north of Raqqa. Currently there is no preparation … to liberate Raqqa, unless as part of a campaign which will come after this campaign has finished,” says Talal Silo, spokesman for the U.S.-backed Syria Democratic Forces (SDF) alliance to Reuters.
In other words, SDF is marching around the city, and most probably trying to cut off all the supply routes.
On Tuesday afternoon most of the media around the world announced the operation. Pictures of YPG and YPJ preparing for the battle circulated widely. Morale was hyped up in every front. Finally the US could formally announce what the Obama administration was eager to accomplish in the war against ISIS. Many believes that the US president wants the two major ISIS cities (Raqqa and Mosul) to fall before he leaves office, and that is no easy task.
In the past weeks, SDF was very tepid about announcing the Raqqa-operation. Their main concern was the Western front, the corridor which should link the Kobane with Afrin where YPG and SDF are fighting against rebels, ISIS and some Turkmen militias backed by Turkey. Sources within the Kurdish militias repeated that Raqqa was not a priority at the moment and they wanted to secure that corridor first and Jarabulus.
The Obama administration had a different opinion. In Iraq, the Mosul operation is at a dead point. Officially announced on March 24, the battle plan failed miserably after a week. Mainly because of disputes on the ground amongst the several factions which participate in the re-take of the city. Two months later, the Iraqi Army and Peshmerga were able to slowly advance, but they are still far away to actually launch an offensive. In the meantime Shiite militias joined the fight, and Turkey is pressuring to have their share. Also the PKK said they were ready to go, but so-far they have not been welcomed.
On paper Raqqa is a bit easier. There are not so many militias, the front against ISIS is not as fractured. Though super-powers such as Russia want to have a role. According to sources Obama was presented with two options, one of them is to have by the end of May a coordination center in Jordan and both Moscow and Tel Aviv would participate.
In the meantime the US government chose to pressure the YPG to actually start with the operations. General Joseph Votel, CENTCOM commander, arrived (announced) in Kobane to discuss Raqqa, and before him Brett McGurk, Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIS, met with Kurdish officials. It seems that they both pressured to at least start a public opinion campaign. Few days later the operation was formally announced.
The reality is that it will take time to actually march into the city. The battle will be long and of course, ISIS will not give up the city so easily. So stay calm and stay tuned.
PS This analysis is worth reading.
